A Second American Civil War? Here's Why it's Probable!

With today's inflammatory rhetoric, upcoming midterm elections, accusations of voter fraud, global unrest, etc., it is no wonder that many people believe that the United States is heading into the second American civil war. 

One of the people who believe the US is heading into a second civil war is Bill Gates, who recently stated to Forbes, "Political polarization may bring it all to an end. We're going to have a hung election and a civil war." (Source)

Unfortunately for everyone who may suffer as a result of a civil war, there are a "broad variety of voices — including Republican and Democratic politicians, academics who study civil strife, and extremists on both ends of the spectrum — now accept the idea that civil war is either imminent or necessary." (Source)

Is that true? Is another American civil war possible? Read on…

Is Another American Civil War Possible?

Of course, another civil war in the United States is possible. To say something that has happened throughout history isn't a possibility is a sign of those suffering from normalcy bias.

In reality, any nation that experiences a difficult time runs the risk of a civil war. And the United States, along with other countries, is experiencing difficult times.

Rather than asking if another American civil war is possible, we should ask ourselves, "Is another American civil war possible now or in the near future."

Tragically, my response to the question, "Is another American civil war possible now or in the near future" is, Yes! Yes, a war within America is becoming more possible by the day.

What is a Civil War?

Yes, I know you know what a civil war is. However, I feel some definitions are essential and will help us establish a common understanding of the definition of a civil war. From there, we can each take differing paths, and as with determining when life starts, if we can't agree or compromise, we're left with no options.

When it comes to defining civil war, "The Centre for the Study of Civil War at the Peace Research Institute in Norway, which studies civil conflict around the world, defines "civil strife" as 25 deaths a year from politically motivated violence. For a conflict to rise to the level of "civil war," the annual death count must reach 1,000." (Source)

By that definition, civil strife is not only a step on the road to civil war—its 25 deaths due to political violence acts like a canary in the coal mine for detecting a war between citizens. Achieving the level of civil strife warns us that we are 25 lives worth of political unrest down the path to civil war oblivion. Interestingly, the US experienced over 20 deaths due to political violence in 2020.

And while some may relish that path to establishment led suicide, to many such as myself who have lived in war-torn corners of the world, the prospect of civil war coming to our doorsteps is not only incredibly disturbing. It's totally insane!

Civil War Case Studies

Let's look at some historical case studies of other civil wars to determine how our modern war between the American people might begin.

English Civil War in America (1775-1783)

While the Declaration of Independence was signed in 1776, the civil strife that led to the English Civil War—later referred to by the winning side as the American Revolution—began smoldering in 1765 when the English government increased taxes to pay for the French and Indian War (1756-1763). (Source)

Make no mistake about it. It was government policy and lack of concern about the sentiment of the people that fanned the flames which divided America. Eventually, the displeasure with higher taxes and government overreach led to the government killing five citizens on March 5, 1770, in what is known as the Boston Massacre.

Over time the tensions of the already smoldering civil war grew worse, culminating in the Battles of Lexington and Concord on April 18, 1775. The battles began when government forces attempted to seize firearms and force compliance with government mandates.

Spanish Civil War (1936-1939)

The Spanish Civil War is often cited as an example of the horrors that can result when towns and neighbors turn against each other. The war, which lasted from 1936 to 1939, pitted Republican forces against Nationalist rebels in a battle for control of Spain. (Source)

Following a failed military coup, the conflict quickly escalated. As often happens in internal wars, the Spanish Civil War resulted in neighbors and towns fighting one another.

Ultimately, the Nationalists emerged victorious, and Spain descended into a dictatorship that would last for decades. The Spanish Civil War serves as a reminder of the dangers of allowing societal divisions to fester and grow.

When mistrust and hatred are allowed to flourish, the results can be catastrophic.

Bosnia War (1992-1995)

The war in Bosnia and Herzegovina is more evidence that the all-in demonization of one side by the other and vice-versa leads us down the path to another Bull Run.

(My Podcast with Bosnian War survivor and author Selco Begovic)

Bosnia, like elsewhere, with one side poised against the other, found former friends and community members locked in deadly conflict. Neighbors and family members faced one another merely because the two sides couldn't come to an agreement about fundamental human rights and the freedoms we all should have.

And sadly, when two sides cannot, at a minimum, agree to disagree on the most fundamental of topics—freedoms, and rights, there will most certainly be a fight. It's not a matter of if; it's a matter of when—more on that later.

What Causes a Civil War

More often than not, happy and content people don't start civil wars.

Instead, civil wars, I believe, are typically caused when a significant portion of the population reaches a critical mass that prompts one side to stand against the will of another.

The critical mass that prompts a civil war is typically displeasure with the ruling government or circumstances put into place by the government. In modern times that displeasure is measured by the Misery Index.

The Misery Index

The Misery Index is a mathematical formula based on unemployment and inflation rates used to determine how miserable the American people are. Unfortunately, the Misery Index is closing in on a 40-year high, further adding to the potential for civil war.

And regardless of whether the displeased people are accurate in their beliefs about their government and situation, their beliefs hold power. Therefore, when one or both sides believe violence is the only option to their misery, violence will be forthcoming regardless of the facts.

3 States Where a Second American Civil War Could Start?

"3 states where a second American civil war could start" is a recognized search term on Google and other search engines. In other words, people are drilling into the specifics of a possible second civil war in America.

Unfortunately, the question of which "3 states where a second American civil war could start," in my opinion, shows a lack of understanding of the current political and social climate within the United States.

Business Insider proposes that the most likely states for the second civil war to start are Michigan, New York, and Oregon. And while those states definitely have internal conflict points, I believe that if a second civil war were to take place in the U.S., it would most likely begin as a conflict between major urban centers and the lesser populated regions.

Regardless of where you align politically, Democrat, Republican, or other, I feel it's safe to say that all sides are fairly entrenched in their respective corners.

Urban vs. Less Urban and Rural

Those in the major urban centers mostly align with the Democrat party. Similarly, less populated cities and regions largely align with the Republican party. Finally, there is a mix of people who, having sworn off both parties, align between the two.

Tragically, the prospects of avoiding the American Civil War—Part Deux seem to be dwindling as the two primary competing sides, the Democrat and Republican wings of the establishment, further their dialectical divide of the populous.

My Body, My Choice

Case in point, both simultaneously embracing and denouncing the double-entendre of their rallying cry, "My body, my choice!" when it comes to vaccine mandates and abortions. That same juxtaposition takes place when it comes to free speech, the rights of parents, and even divides on how to walk.

The point is that We the People have become so divided that we cannot even agree upon the definition of freedom of choice when it comes to our own bodies. Again, the displeasure that statement may cause some is evidence of the growing and unyielding divide within our nation.

Neighborhood to Neighborhood—Individual to Individual

Making the potential of incredible violence likely should civil war break out in the U.S. and elsewhere is the fact that states and communities are divided politically from home to home and person to person.

For example, while its 10 million votes for President Biden show California to be a stronghold of the Democrats, the nearly 5 million votes for former President Donald Trump show that the people of CA are not all sold on the Democrat party. The fact that Biden was the first candidate to eclipse 10M votes was as historic as Trump taking home more CA votes than any Republican in history. (Source)

The fact that, in a massive metropolis like Los Angeles, you have anti-Democrat pro-former President Donald Trump loyalists living amongst anti-Republican, pro-President Biden Democrats emphasizes that while our possibly upcoming civil war may align on a state-by-state level, the violence will most likely begin in the neighborhoods and byways of any town America—fanned by the flames of political violence. 

How Would a Second American Civil War Start?

While no one can say for sure what a modern-day civil war in the United States would look like, it is almost certain that violence would begin with someone or a group of people on one side or the other making an ill-informed and ill-timed action. In turn, that action will prompt a violent reaction (aka confrontation) from the other side.

However, as the slow-burning fuse of violence that progressed from the Boston Massacre to the official start of the English Civil War showed, the conflagration of war burns all involved—including the innocent.

How Likely is a Civil War in the United States?

As frightening as it is for our friends and family to be front and center in war, a July 2022 study from the University of California at Davis reports that over half of the nearly 9,000 respondents stated they believe that “in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States.” (Source)

A significant portion of those close to 7,000 respondents believe that violence is sometimes justified to achieve political goals with:

• 12.2% willing to threaten or intimidate a person

• 10.4% willing to injure a person

• 7.1% willing to kill a person

These statistics show that people are committed to their beliefs, and many of those who are committed are willing to use violence to get their political point across. Moreover, as discussed earlier, a commitment to one's beliefs does not mandate a commitment to facts. 

Therefore, with the need for facts torn asunder, all we're left with needwise for a civil war to start is a non-factual belief. And, as all segments of our population are now woefully aware of the other, fact's don't matter.

Whether it's about mail-in voting, Supreme Court rulings, the midterm elections, former President Trump, President Biden, American democracy, and so on, both sides believe the other to be mostly, if not entirely wrong, out of pace with reality, and deceitful.

How likely is war in the United States? That depends.

What do you feel the chances are that people will stop demonizing one another and focus on agreement and problem-solving rather than looking for difference?

The Bottom Line on the Possibility of a Second Civil War

Yes, there's a possibility of conflict, and the closer we move to the 2024 Presidential election, the more likely that possibility becomes.

That's because, as I discussed in this article, the potential for the two sides to compromise and agree is next to nil. More significantly, the lack of agreement, as shown in the UC Davis study, has people ready to use violence to get their way.

Fortunately for you, your side is right.